The uncertainty on global markets, particularly in the wake of Trump¡¯s threatened trade wars, have affected the business travel sector in the Nordics.

¡°Some travel managers have been instructed to decrease travel expenses due to financial uncertainty, but these will be companies directly affected by the heavy fluctuations in the markets. Others continue do business as usual, while keeping an eye on what¡¯s going on,¡± says Areka Consulting¡¯s Lotten Fowler.

All eyes are on the Nordic economies. Denmark was the leader of the pack, delivering growth of 3.7 per cent in 2024. This is expected to moderate to 2.9 per cent this year but it is still comfortably ahead of other Nordic economies.

*Estimated

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In Norway, GDP grew by 2.1 per cent in 2024 and growth in 2025 is expected to be around 1.8 per cent. The Swedish economy grew by 1 per cent in 2024 but this is expected to accelerate to 1.9 per cent growth in 2025, according to the IMF. Finland reported a contraction in GDP of 0.1 per cent but the economy is set to grow by 1 per cent in 2025.

The impact of the proposed merger between American Express Global Business Travel and CWT will perhaps be felt nowhere more keenly than in the Nordics. ¡°Multinational travel managers are quite unhappy with the proposed deal as there will be much less to choose from,¡± says Fowler.

¡°In Finland, CWT and GBT combined have by far the largest market share,¡± she adds. ¡°There are mumbles of an almost monopolistic situation once the merger happens. On the other hand, it opens the door for the newcomers ¨C Spotnana, Navan etc ¨C although they¡¯re not yet deemed by everyone to have a product for the true multinationals,¡± says Fowler. ¡°BCD Travel and FCM have a small presence there but are still quite small and are now trying to make themselves better known in Finland.¡± 

SPEAKING OUT

Norway¡¯s Berg-Hansen has been very vocal about the proposed merger. In February, the Norwegian giant said it was ¡°very surprised¡± when the UK¡¯s Competition and Markets Authority pulled a fast U-turn and gave the planned acquisition a green light. The TMC said it found the CMA¡¯s arguments used to arrive at a new conclusion ¡°speculative and tendentious¡± and expressed concerns about the fate of CWT's partner network should the acquisition go through.

The expectation in the region is that if the deal gets approval in the United States ¨C by no means certain ¨C then Berg-Hansen would go independent.

Elsewhere in the Nordics, Amex GBT and CWT have strong market positions. ¡°Denmark has a few smaller independent corporate travel agencies to complement GBT, FCM and BCD. Navan has also signed a few larger corporates in Denmark, so they have a foot in the door there,¡± says Fowler.

Sweden appears less of a concern if the merger is approved. ¡°The Nordic headquarters of both BCD and FCM are in Stockholm and Sweden also has some business travel agencies operating under cooperation agreements which means they can support larger clients. Finland has none of that.¡±

TURBULENT TIMES

The fate of SAS is also being scrutinised closely. The airline, one of the most important travel suppliers in the region, successfully completed its restructuring proceedings and emerged from Chapter 11 in the USA. It said it had ¡°emerged as a competitive and financially robust airline with a strengthened capital structure¡±.

SAS flew 25.2 million passengers in 2024, an increase of 6.4 per cent compared with 2023. The airline¡¯s revenues increased to SKr45.9 billion (€1 billion) delivering pre-tax profits of SKr 1.74 billion (€160 million). The group made an operating loss of SKr 2.11 billion (€190 million).

Fowler says corporates in the region are particularly concerned about the geopolitical situation, perhaps unsurprising given their huge and belligerent neighbour to the east, Russia.

¡°It affects everything,¡± she says. ¡°Governments focus on rearmament rather than sustainability, travel to certain regions is restricted, US travel has decreased heavily ¨C both corporate and leisure ¨C and financial markets are unstable.¡±

She adds: ¡°In the case of Sweden, on top of Trump¡¯s different decisions, you have a government that has retracted from sustainability efforts. Our current government removed aviation tax a couple of years ago as well as having taken away the blending mandate for fuel which has increased Sweden¡¯s greenhouse gas emissions.¡±

That said, she believes the travel industry is stepping up. ¡°My feeling is that the industry is still committed to a more sustainable future ¨C the travel industry as well as our large industrial companies. Their long-term plans can¡¯t be changed on the whim of politicians.¡±