A third of global travel managers expect business travel volumes to fall this year as a direct result of recent US government policies, according to the latest GBTA (Global Business Travel Association) survey.

The July poll of more than 900 travel buyers and suppliers around the world found the industry is ¡°actively adapting¡± to actions by the US government under President Trump and the subsequent shifts in geopolitics. Notably, optimism appears to be declining across the industry compared to the association¡¯s previous April survey.

Currently, 34 per cent of buyers ¨C up from 29 per cent in April ¨C expect business travel volumes at their organisation to decrease this year. Nearly half (49 per cent) of these foresee international trips dropping by 19 per cent on average, while 23 per cent anticipate domestic and intra-regional business travel will fall by an average of 21 per cent.

Buyers¡¯ outlook on business travel spending stayed relatively consistent compared with three months ago, with 31 per cent expecting a decrease in spend this year (compared with 27 per cent in April). On average, travel spend is expected to decline by 17 per cent, down from 20 per cent in April. Less than half of buyer respondents (46 per cent) said that their travel volumes would not be impacted by changes in US policies, while 45 per cent expect the same for travel spend.

The GBTA also noted that 70 per cent of companies based in Europe and 53 per cent of those in APAC are now seeking new trade partners outside of the US. Globally, one in five travel buyers (18 per cent) said their employees have declined business trips to the US due to concerns related to US government actions.

Meetings and events have also been negatively affected by US government policies, with an uptick in the number of cancellations and relocations between April and July.

The number of cancelled US-based meetings increased to 18 per cent (up from 13 per cent in April), while event cancellations also increased to 17 per cent (up from 10 per cent in April).

Additionally, 13 per cent of meetings were relocated outside of the US (up from 8 per cent), while 12 per cent of events (up from 6 per cent) were also moved away.

One in five companies (20 per cent) also cancelled sending employees to US-based events (up from 10 per cent) and a further 24 per cent shifted meetings or events online (up from 19 per cent).

Increased safety and budget concerns

Optimism for the remainder of 2025 remains ¡°muted¡±, the GBTA said. Buyer optimism remains ¡°relatively consistent¡± compared to three months prior, albeit at a low of 29 per cent (compared to 28 per cent in April). This is ¡°significantly lower¡± than the 67 per cent of respondents who expressed a positive outlook in the association¡¯s November 2024 survey.

Confidence among suppliers has also dropped ¡°several points¡± in recent months to 27 per cent, down from 36 per cent in April. This reflects growing revenue concerns among suppliers with almost half (48 per cent) now expecting a drop in business travel revenue. This is up sharply from 37 per cent in April, with accommodation suppliers the most concerned, according to the survey, with 58 per cent anticipating revenue decreases.

The top two concerns for respondents about the longer-term impact of US government policies on business travel remain unchanged since April. These pertained to higher costs (55 per cent in July compared to 54 per cent in April) and additional travel processing and administration requirements (47 per cent in July compared to 46 per cent in April).

However, concerns increased in the areas of safety and duty of care (46 per cent) and border detentions (31 per cent), both up nine points since April. Fears of budget cuts (44 per cent of respondents) and decreased willingness among employees to travel to the US (41 per cent), were both up four points from April to July.?

GBTA surveyed 951 travel buyers, suppliers and other industry professionals across the world.