Global spending on business travel is expected to reach a record US$1.57 trillion in 2025 and US$1.69 trillion in 2026, according to the Global Business Travel Association¡¯s newly published Business Travel Index Outlook, but the organisation has downgraded its growth expectations amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

In the latest edition of its annual report, GBTA projects ¡°moderate¡± year-on-year growth in business travel spend of 6.6 per in 2025 ¡°due to trade tensions, policy uncertainty and economic pressures¡±, rising to anticipated growth of 8.1 per cent in 2026. A year ago, the organisation had predicted 10.4 per cent growth this year and 9.2 per cent in 2026.

Global business travel spend in 2024 was also adjusted in this latest forecast, coming in at $1.47 trillion, slightly below the $1.48 trillion predicted a year ago.

Despite nominal spending reaching a record high in 2025, business travel volumes likely remain below pre-pandemic levels, noted GBTA in its report, with inflation-adjusted spending some 14 per cent below pre-pandemic levels and ¡°underscoring a slower recovery in travel volume¡±.?

Long-term forecasts remain ¡°clouded by geopolitical and economic volatility¡±, while the pace and trajectory of growth will depend heavily on the resolution ¨C or escalation ¨C of global trade tensions, the association added.

¡°As we thoughtfully anticipate reaching a new high in business travel spending this year, the outlook is steady ¨C but the road ahead is more complex,¡± said Suzanne Neufang, CEO of GBTA.?

¡°Trade policy uncertainty, inflationary pressures, and shifting global supply chains are reshaping how and where companies travel. This latest forecast reflects the resilience of business travel and our industry as well as the acknowledgement of the risks ahead.¡±

The world¡¯s two biggest spenders on business travel ¨C the US and China ¨C are expected to trade places in 2025, with the former reclaiming its position at the top, with 10 per cent growth taking spend to $395.4 billion, compared to 2 per cent growth in China and $373.1 billion in spend.

Of the top 15 markets globally, India, the UK, South Korea and Canada are all expected to see double-digit increases in business travel spend this year.

The 17th annual Business Travel Index Outlook was compiled by Rockport Analytics and covers 72 countries and 44 industries.