Paul Mutter is global coverage manager at travel risk intelligence company Riskline
The return of Donald Trump as President of the United States has brought greater scrutiny upon travellers visiting the country and a raft of fluctuating trade tariffs that are affecting appetite for travel. Paul Mutter, global coverage manager at travel risk intelligence company Riskline, assesses the impact on transatlantic business travel.
BTN Europe: There is widespread evidence that leisure travel from Europe to the US is declining, but corporate travel seems to be holding steady at the moment 每 is that your take on things? Are you seeing any evidence to the contrary?
Paul Mutter: Leisure travel has fallen sharply, especially from Europe and Canada. These changes are driven less by specific immigration law changes than by de facto boycotts of US goods and services over inflammatory comments by President Trump.?
Leisure travellers are also less motivated to come to the US due to publicity surrounding media reports around individuals held in detention for extended periods for violating entry rules or engaging in activity deemed suspicious. The seeming arbitrariness of these cases has alarmed leisure travellers who are choosing alternative destinations.
BTN Europe: Can you summarise how US travel and immigration policies have changed since Trump returned to Washington?
Paul Mutter: The second Trump administration, like the first, has adopted an approach of moving fast and breaking things, issuing a flurry of executive orders (EOs) and other measures to restrict both legal and illegal immigration, focusing on entry bans and deportations.
Previous rules intended to encourage refugee resettlement and legal entry pending court appearances have been rescinded. The second Trump administration is also far less concerned about being rebuked by the courts on such measures, preferring instead to make only slight modifications to policies before returning to the courts, rather than stepping back and redrafting the rules to ensure a greater chance of successfully implementing the changes in full.
BTN Europe: Are businesses adjusting travel plans due to perceived risks or complications at US borders?
Paul Mutter: Several countries, including Ireland, the Netherlands, Denmark, the United Kingdom, Germany, Finland and Canada, have issued travel warnings due to the risk of detention and expulsion when travelling to the US. Businesses will accordingly adjust their advice for employees based on governments' recommendations.
BTN Europe: Are there particular nationalities or visa categories facing higher scrutiny or delays when traveling to the US?
Paul Mutter: Yes. Hundreds of students have had their visas cancelled and several academics have reportedly been denied entry for comments deemed to be "anti-American" by the Department of State (US law permits such designations on national security grounds). Labour activism and pro-Palestinian advocacy have been anecdotally noted as potential barriers to entry.
BTN Europe: What should travel managers be watching for in terms of changes to visa policy or customs enforcement?
Paul Mutter: Although the second Trump administration has not yet reimposed travel bans that were repealed by the Biden administration, a list of up to 43 countries whose nationals will be banned, have the number of available visas cut, or are subject to more extensive vetting, is circulating internally. These include countries with ongoing military conflicts, longstanding diplomatic disputes with the US, a history of visa overstays by their nationals, and those that refuse to accept repatriation of their citizens. Travellers from Afghanistan, Bhutan, Cuba, Iran, Libya, North Korea, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Venezuela, and Yemen are most likely to be completely banned under the proposed rules.
BTN Europe: Are there specific US airports or entry points that present higher risks or delays for business travellers?
Paul Mutter: Yes. Travellers entering via Canada and Mexico in particular have reported being subject to greater scrutiny, while air travellers arriving on uncommon, multi-stop routes are also likely to be flagged for additional screening. Although these measures pre-date the second Trump administration, travellers have anecdotally complained the criteria appear to be more arbitrary and less subject to appeal than in the past.
Travellers arriving with declared goods, especially restricted and prohibited items such as biological materials, should expect additional screening, as well as fines or imprisonment for failing to satisfy requirements. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents have extensive powers over all ports of entry and well inland from those locations.
BTN Europe: What are your top recommendations for travel managers and their travellers in the current environment?
Paul Mutter: Travellers should review their social media accounts for comments perceived as "anti-American" and consider travelling with "burner devices" 每 as the EU has done for staff visting the US 每 to avoid issues surrounding protected speech.
BTN Europe: How important is pre-travel communication and traveller education in managing these risks effectively?
Paul Mutter: Very important. Travel managers must ensure that travellers are not only aware of the risks but that duty of care plans are in place for their clients. These should include comprehensive social media engagement rules, personal electronic device security 每 including purchasing and support for temporary devices for travel use 每 and contact information for consular officials or company-affiliated legal representation in the event of detention or deportation.
BTN Europe: Do current trade tensions or tariffs have any indirect effect on corporate travel to the US, such as tighter scrutiny of travellers linked to certain industries?
Paul Mutter: Not yet. With the most extensive tariffs paused as of the beginning of May, additional enforcement and surveillance mechanisms have not yet been implemented for goods or people. It is likely that this will change once the tariffs take effect, but the rollout is expected to be uneven and arbitrary, as some countries have experienced tariff rates rising and falling rapidly over short periods due to political developments. Such changes will be difficult to predict, with some already having been announced and modified on the same day by US officials.
BTN Europe: Do you expect the climate for inbound business travel to the US to become more or less restrictive over the next year or so?
Paul Mutter: More. Once the most restrictive measures, again targeting China, are fully implemented, travellers from China or those affiliated with Chinese companies, government agencies and universities can expect to encounter greater scrutiny. This will be especially true for strategic sectors such as aerospace, semiconductors, shipbuilding, biotechnology, agribusiness, artificial intelligence (AI) and metallurgy.
BTN Europe: Could ongoing isolationist policies significantly affect the United States＊ attractiveness as a destination for global business events and meetings?
Paul Mutter: Yes. The aforementioned scrutiny of social media profiles and speed with which visa policies can change will, in the long-term, compel businesses to consider additional insurance and rebooking costs against the benefits of holding events in the US.