Global air travel will not return to pre-Covid-19 levels until 2024, according to the International Air Transport Association, a year later than it had previously projected. IATA expects a recovery in short-haul travel to happen faster than it will for long-haul travel.

June 2020 global air traffic foreshadowed the slower-than-expected recovery, according to IATA. In June, global air demand fell 86.5 per cent year over year. Global capacity fell 80.1 per cent year over year. Load factor fell 26.8 percentage points to 57.6 per cent, an all-time low for the month of June.

IATA noted that reductions in corporate travel have contributed to its revised outlook. "Corporate travel budgets are expected to be very constrained as companies continue to be under financial pressure even as the economy improves," IATA said in a statement. "In addition, while historically GDP growth and air travel have been highly correlated, surveys suggest this link has weakened, particularly with regard to business travel, as video conferencing appears to have made significant inroads as a substitute for in-person meetings."

IATA also cited the slow containment of the virus in the US as well as flare-ups in other countries, and the continued suspension of international travel. IATA also noted weak consumer confidence caused by concerns over job security and rising unemployment.

One comparatively bright spot was domestic air travel demand, which in June fell by 67.6 per cent year over year, compared with a 78.4 per cent year-over-year decline in May, according to IATA. Domestic capacity in June was down 55.9 per cent year over year, and load factor fell 22.8 per cent year over year to 62.9 per cent. In contrast, June international air travel demand fell 96.8 per cent year over year. Capacity dropped 93.2 per cent year over year, while load factor dropped 44.7 percentage points to 38.9 per cent.

"Domestic traffic improvements notwithstanding, international traffic, which in normal times accounts for close to two-thirds of global air travel, remains virtually non-existent. Most countries are still closed to international arrivals or have imposed quarantines that have the same effect as an outright lockdown," said IATA director general and CEO Alexandre de Juniac. "Summer ¨C our industry¡¯s busiest season ¨C is passing by rapidly, with little chance for an upswing in international air travel unless governments move quickly and decisively to find alternatives to border closures, confidence-destroying stop-start re-openings and demand-killing quarantine."

To wit, the UK issued a quarantine directive over the weekend for arrivals from Spain, which applied to both UK nationals and visitors alike, with six hours' advance notice. It put the kibosh on leisure and business travel, according to a statement issued by the BTA, and it left TMCs grasping for solutions for their clients.