Business travel prices are expected to ¡°stabilise further¡± over the next 18 months, according to a new report by CWT and the Global Business Travel Association (GBTA).

The annual Global Business Travel Forecast is predicting ¡°modest annual fluctuations¡± in airfares, hotel rates and ground transport costs in 2025 and 2026. This comes after several years of ¡°pandemic-induced volatility and recovery-driven spikes¡±.

¡°Airline capacity, room supply and car rental fleets are gradually catching up with demand ¨C though inflationary pressures, economic uncertainty, policy shifts and geopolitical tensions remain key watchpoints,¡± said CWT and GBTA.

The report, which was unveiled on Monday (21 July) at GBTA's annual convention in Denver, is estimating that average global airfares will increase by 0.4 per cent in 2026 to US$708, after a projected 2.2 per cent year-on-year drop during 2025. In Europe, airfares are expected to rise by 0.6 per cent this year and then by 2.1 per cent in 2026.

CWT and GBTA forecast that the average global daily hotel rate will increase by 1.8 per cent to $166 in 2026, following a 1.2 per cent rise in 2025. While average rates in Europe are forecast to grow by 1.9 per cent in both 2025 and 2026.

Global car rental rates in 2026 are set to increase by 2.8 per cent year-on-year to $48 per day, after a projected 2.9 per cent rise in 2025 - both figures are much lower than the 6.1 per cent increase in 2024 after vehicle availability ¡°improved significantly". This is also reflected in Europe where rises of 1.3 per cent and 1.5 per cent are forecast in 2025 and 2026 respectively, which compares with an increase of 6.7 per cent in 2024.

For meetings, the average per-day, per-attendee cost is forecast to increase by 3.7 per cent in 2025 to $168, followed by a further 2.4 per cent rise in 2026 to $172. These increases would represent a ¡°softening in growth¡± compared with the 4.5 per cent rise in 2024.

Heading for a 'more predictable era'

Patrick Andersen, CEO of CWT, said the ¡°normalising¡± of business travel prices was ¡°creating real opportunities for corporate travel buyers¡±.

¡°While economic uncertainty hasn¡¯t gone away, corporate travel buyers are regaining leverage and have more room to optimise their programmes,¡± he added.

¡°Whether it¡¯s capitalising on localised pricing trends, securing added value through smarter negotiations, or rethinking event formats for greater impact, this is a moment to be proactive and strategic.¡±

The forecast is generated by using Avrio Institute¡¯s economic and statistical modelling of anonymised data generated by CWT and GBTA, as well as publicly available information.

CWT and GBTA have also produced a Global Recessionary Forecast, which looks at potential price changes if there is an economic downturn, with price falls across all travel categories predicted in this scenario for both 2025 and 2026.

GBTA¡¯s CEO Suzanne Neufang said current indicators were ¡°pointing to a more predictable era ahead for business travel pricing¡± after the post-Covid surge in prices.

¡°However, that landscape will continue to be shaped by inflation, supply constraints and evolving traveller expectations,¡± added Neufang. ¡°The good news is that with better data and clearer trends, buyers can plan with more confidence. Success will come from staying informed and flexible, while aligning travel decisions with broader business goals.¡±

GBTA has also just released its latest Business Travel Index Outlook, which predicts global business travel spending of US$1.57 trillion in 2025 and US$1.69 trillion in 2026, although this is a downgrade on previous growth expectations amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.